to take the delayed effect of balance sheet reduction conducted earlier into its consideration of rate cuts. The current phase-out of balanc
上海会所e sheet reduction already has some easing effect, and only after the balance sheet reduction ends in September, can its impact become clearer.
By incorporating that impact into consideration, the Fed can draw up a better rate cut plan that maximizes effects of the policy mix.上海会所
Thirdly, the market may have overestimated how much the Fed will cut the rates. There may be no more than three rate cuts by the end of 2020.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – the major advocate of this
round of rate cut – has suggested the use of the modern-day Taylor rule, which fairly well explains th上海会所
e Fed’s interest rate decisions. Even based on this model adopted by dovish Fed officials, we found that the degree of rate cuts may be weaker than m
上海会所arket expectation for quite some time going forward: at most one cut by the end of this year and likely two or three cuts by the end of 2020.
By contrast, before the June FOMC meeting, the market expected a higher-than-85-percent chance of more than one rate cut by the
end of this year as well as an about 60-percent chance of more than three cuts by the end of 2020, according to Bloomberg data.上海会所品茶微信
In conclusion, we think as economic downside pressure gradually emerges, the Fed will have to kick off the rate cut cycle. But the rate cut si上海会所品茶微信
gnal, timing and degree may not measure up to the market expectation. Therefore, two future developments appear possible:
First, investor sentiment can reverse drastically if the Fed’s action fails to meet market expec上海会所品茶微信
tation. Considering the market has fully priced in the unrealistic expectation of rate cuts sinc
e early June, any reversal of expectation can lead to short-term fluctuations of key price signals such as the US Treasury yield cu
rve, the US Dollar Index, and the gold price, which may pose extensive spillover shocks to asset portfolios.
Second, the long-term trend of rate cuts will continue even if the market expectation reverses. In the long
run, the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts in a fairly slow and smooth way. This will enlarge the monetary policy room of ot
her major economies and expedite the shift toward an easing global monetary environment, which may in turn lift the sen
timent of global stock markets and ease any currency risk of emerging markets gradually.
Cheng Shi is the managing director, head of research and chief economist of ICBC Interna
tional Holdings Ltd.Qian Zhijun is a senior economist of ICBC International Holdings Ltd.
US markets rallied and closed in positive territory Monday on news that Chinese President Xi Ji
上海419论坛nping and his US counterpart Donald Trump will resume negotiations to resolve the ongoing trade dispute.
Trump said talks are “back on track” and held off on his threat to impose tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods. Trump 上海419论坛
said China will buy “a tremendous amount” of US food and agriculture exports while bilateral negotiations are ongoing.
The S&P 500 reached 2,977.86 in midday trading, all all-time high, bef
ore closing at 2964.33, up 22.57 points. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the market rema 上海419论坛
ins unclear as US manufacturing dipped close to a three-year low in June amid a worldwide economic slowdown.
“The devil is always in the details,” Usha Haley, professor of manageme
nt at Wichita State University, told China Daily. “I don’t know if Trump is the great m
上海419论坛品茶微信ediator. But everyone gave a huge sigh of relief that talks have resumed between the US and China.”
Trump eased export sanctions on Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, boosting semiconductor stocks, including Micron Tech
nology, Skyworks Solutions, Qualcomm and Broadcom — and sparking the possibility of a revolt among some Republicans.
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, a strong Trump supporter, told NBC’s Face the Nation on Sund 上海419论坛品茶微信
ay that he’s reviewing Trump’s action and noted, “It’s clearly a concession. There’ll be a lot of pu
shback if this is a major concession. If it’s a minor concession, I think it’s part of the overall deal.”
Neither side sai 上海419论坛品茶微信d when negotiations would resume or established a schedule for completing a deal.
Goldman Sachs called Trump’s decision to ease export sanctions on Huawei a “potential unexpected market friendly outcome”。
Asked at the G20 meeting in Japan if he had removed Huawei from the Entity List that controls the export of technology th
at could compromise US national security, Trump said, “No, not at all” and “We are talking about that” before telling re
porters, “I don’t want to talk about it now, we are looking at it very carefully. Huawei is very much in play.”
and answer se上海419论坛女神会所ssion, during which he answers questio
ns that come in by telephone, text, email, social media, or live via television studios.
According to infographics released by the Rossiya-24 channel, a total of 1,0
53,326 questions had been submitted as of 09:00 Moscow time on Wednesday. More than half
of them (616,505 questions) were asked by phone, while 291,311 were transmitted via SMS and MMS messages. So
me 55,133 came in through a mobile app, 49,800 by way of a website, and 40,557 via social networks. A push by m
ost European Union nations for the world’s biggest economic bloc to go carbon-neutral by 2050 was dropped to a foot
note at a summit on Thursday after fierce resistance from Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary.
ries. The others上海千花坊女神会所o said they wished to remain in China, have been given legal stat
us after going through proper cross-border marriage registration procedures, according to the ministry.
The efforts targeted people in China and other countries who collaborated in trafficking women.
“Such practices have not only seriously harmed the legitimate rights of these women but also fostered crimes such as smu
ggling, illegal marriage and fraud,” Guo Lin, a ministry spokeswoman, said at a news conference on Friday.
Police from the six countries conducted a joint campaign from July to December.
During the campaign, 634 human trafficking cases were uncovered and 1,130 suspects, including 153 foreigners, were arrested.
Also, 126 marriage fraud cases were uncovered and 202 suspects, including 109 foreigners, were arrested, according to the ministry.